Forecasting the NBA Offseason Frenzy: 5 Blockbuster Trades

Predicting blockbuster moves this NBA offseason ahead of the draft on June 25th

I’ve written before about parity being at an all-time high in the NBA this decade, and a byproduct of that parity is more aggressive offseason moves, as teams are emboldened to make franchise-altering trades when the NBA landscape is wide open. It’s a lot easier to convince yourself your team is one piece away when teams that started the playoffs as afterthoughts like Indiana get within a game of an NBA championship.

Think about how many teams were considered on par with Indiana in March. Twelve? Fifteen? That’s part of the reason why you see bottom-feeder teams like the Raptors in conversations surrounding Giannis trade talks. That move may not make sense on the surface, but are the Raptors + Giannis really that far from the Finals? Probably not. The fact that Celtics are retooling next year with Jayson Tatum set to miss the season and the 2nd apron looming only strengthens the idea that any team can make a run. Hell, if I was the GM of the Magic, I would probably talk myself into a 35-year old James Harden being the answer to all my problems after five beers (side note: adding James Harden to the current Magic team would be a great fit).

A lot of high-profile moves have already been announced: Kevin Durant, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, CJ McCollum and Desmond Bane have all been traded in the last week. With the path to the NBA finals wide open for 2026, lets predict some of the more seismic offseason moves below.

All 1st Round Picks are assumed to be top-5 protected for simplicity.

Lakers Reinforce Frontcourt with Domantas Sabonis

Trade:

LAL receives: Domantas Sabonis

SAC receives: Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, 2026 1st Round Pick

LA gets the big man they desperately need here, trading star guard Austin Reaves to their crosstown division rival to make way for Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis isn’t the typical rim-runner Luka prefers to play with, but he’s an elite offensive forward who commands attention throughout the key and forms a formidable pick-and-roll duo with Doncic in their halfcourt offense. He’s also a strong rebounder and respectable enough on the defensive end (so long as he stays near the paint) that he represents a major upgrade for LA on the less glamorous end compared to their frontcourt post-AD last year. Losing Reaves stings, but Luka and LeBron can run the offense just fine on their own, while Los Angeles can use their mid-level exception to add an athletic center since Sabonis can play the 4 in a big lineup.

Sacramento gets younger with Reaves + a first and can embrace a full rebuild after dealing De’Aaron Fox last season. Reaves is a young star that fits a rebuilding timeline better than Sabonis, while Hachimura and Vincent are solid rotation players that can help steady Sacramento’s lineup.

Bucks Hold Onto Giannis, Swap Dame for Bradley Beal

Trade:

MIL receives: Bradley Beal, Royce O’Neale

PHX receives: Damian Lillard

I was tempted here to put together a Giannis-Spurs megadeal. Milwaukee has very few paths to upgrading the roster around Giannis given they’re asset-bare and cash-strapped; trading the Greek Freak to San Antonio would net them the #2 overall pick, Jeremy Sochan, Stephon Castle, and countless other 1sts that would represent their best possible rebuilding situation following the eventual end of the Giannis era.

Milwaukee doesn’t seem like they’re going to do that. Their options outside of blowing it up involve a Cameron Johnson for Kuzma + picks swap, a couple three-team trades that bring in more depth, and this. This trade is a win-win for two franchises with limited flexibility. In theory, Beal is healthy and can contribute to a potential title-run next season, while also being a solid fit with Giannis in terms of spacing and ball-handling duties. For Phoenix, Dame should be an upgrade over Beal once he recovers from his Achilles tear and is a better fit with Devin Booker as a natural point guard.

This trade doesn’t solve either team’s problems, but it makes both situations slightly less faulty.

Clippers Hit Reset, Cavaliers Takes a Gamble on Kawhi

Trade:

CLE receives: Kawhi Leonard, Kris Dunn

LAC receives: Darius Garland, Max Strauss, 2030 1st Round Pick

The Clippers choose to sell high on Kawhi Leonard’s renaissance at the end of last season here, dealing the star forward after years of injuries and too-little too-late flashes of his old self. Despite Leonard looking like the apex predator that carried Toronto to their only title in 2019 in the playoffs, LA has seen this story play out before and finally moves on from the 2nd half of the failed Leonard-George tandem they gave up 5 first-round picks and future MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for.

Cleveland meanwhile, takes a gamble on Leonard being the missing piece to a roster that was a top-5 team in each of the last two regular seasons only to flame out in the playoffs both times. Garland is a rising star but is redundant with Donovan Mitchell leading Clevaland’s backcourt; this trade forms a formidable big-three of Mitchell, Leonard, and reigning DPOY Evan Mobley that can contend with any team in the league, health permitting.

The Cavaliers only have one tradeable first-round pick this offseason, so this would take LAC being high on Garland to get done. Even still, getting off Leonard’s contract and adding a younger All-Star helps LA accelerate their rebuild and should be one of the better offers they receive for their fading superstar. In this scenario, James Harden likely opts-in to his $35 million player option and is then traded to a rising team in need of a lead guard or decides to test free agency outright.

Orlando Nabs Lead Scorer with Trae Young Trade

Trade:

ATL receives: Jalen Suggs, 2025 1st Round Pick (#15), 2027 1st Round Pick, 2028 1st Round Pick

ORL receives: Trae Young

Gauging Trae Young’s trade value is a tall order. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said months ago that “if there was a market for Trae Young, he’d be somewhere else right now,” which explains a lot. Atlanta has been on the treadmill of mediocrity ever since their fluke Conference Finals run in 2021 but hasn’t made any significant changes to the core roster besides the Dejounte Murray try-out. That’s likely due to differences in opinion on what Trae Young is worth. At his best, Young is an offensive juggernaut who immediately elevates any offense he’s on to top 10 in the league. He is also 5’11 and the worst defender the NBA has seen since Isiah Thomas was pulling an MVP season out of his ass in Boston. You could argue that trading for Young transforms a team more than any other roster change given he fills a giant need on one end of the floor and creates a gaping hole on the other.

Young in Orlando makes sense for a couple reasons. They’re a deep, young team that fielded the best defense in the league in terms of rating last season and are well-equipped to hide Young’s woes on the less-glamorous end. They also got dropped by a Boston team in the 1st round of the playoffs that outclassed them from series start to finish. Here Orlando gets a lead man on offense who addresses their dire need for more spacing around their frontcourt stars and still keeps enough of their defense intact to support him next season. Jalen Suggs and 2-3 firsts seems like a fair price for Young and lets Atlanta retool the roster and embrace a more hands-on rebuild.

Pistons Make Their Move in Wide-Open East

Trade:

DET receives: Zion Williamson

NO receives: Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren, 2026 1st Round Pick, 2027 1st Round Pick

Is this the year we finally see the Pelicans move off Zion? He’s coming off yet another disappointing season where he only played 30 games but looked great when he was on the floor (25/7/5). Detroit looked like a team on the rise last year following Cade Cunningham’s breakout, and it’s reasonable to think if you’re Detroit that you’re one piece away from true contention given the current landscape. That being said, do you gamble on a player like Zion? He’s cleared 70 games played in a season just once in his 5-year career, has well-documented weight issues, and is currently involved in a sexual assault lawsuit. That hasn’t stopped teams from taking a flyer on a player in the past. Detroit can rationalize a move this risky with the relatively low asking price; even if Zion flops, their core roster remains mostly unchanged, and two 1st rounders aren’t as valuable as they used to be.

New Orleans meanwhile can stop torturing their fans with the narrow possibility that Zion becomes the all-time great he was projected to be back in 2019 and move forward with a more sincere outlook.

Bonus: Free Agency Predictions

This year’s crop of free agents is underwhelming to say the least, but here’s a few quick hitters anyways (free agents projected to resign are excluded):

James Harden Signs with Spurs

Harden is likely to resign in LA, but if Kawhi is dealt, San Antonio makes sense as a contending team that can afford a large, short-term deal. Harden is familiar with Texas already too

Julius Randle Signs with Hornets

If Charlotte keeps its core intact and signs Ball to an extension, Randle makes sense as a borderline all-star addition that Charlotte can overpay to aid a playoff push

Myles Turner Signs with Pistons

Indiana may be priced out of Turner after their Finals run, and Detroit could use a stretch two-way 5 (who couldn’t?)

Ty Jerome Signs with Mavericks

Jerome should have won Sixth Man of the Year last season, and Cleveland is unlikely to pay up after a disappointing playoff run. Dallas can sign the guard to hold it down while Kyrie rehabs from a torn ACL

Chris Paul Signs with Lakers

CP3 wants to be near his family in LA, and the Lakers offer him one last shot at contention + the chance to play with his dear friend Bronny James

John Collins Signs with Nets

I’m throwing darts at this point. Collins seems like a man that would go for the bag, and Brooklyn has a bag to give. The basketball fit works too